Friday, March 19, 2010

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Archive for the ‘Industrials’ Category

General Electric: Up 10% Since Last Thursday

Posted by admin On March - 18 - 2010

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:

General Electric (GE) has had a pretty good couple of days.

Since last Thursday, the stock has gained more than 10%, which is a big move for GE. The move has propelled GE to its highest level since late 2008, and it has made a big impact on the S&P 500 given its size.


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Commodities Update: Italian Viewpoint

Posted by admin On March - 18 - 2010

Matteo Radaelli submits:

Over the first three months of 2010, major commodities recorded a very positive performance. Between the major ETFs and ETCs listed on the Italian Stock Exchange, ETCs on gold, silver and oil had some of the most brilliant results, rising by 5.7%, 5.7% and 6% respectively. However, the ETF based on the CRB Commodity Index was substantially unchanged in early 2010.
When considering the major international asset classes that can be replicated with Italian ETFs, only European equity emerging markets, US equity indices and the Japanese equity market had better performances.
However, the aforementioned commodities garnered sound performances since the beginning of the year, almost exclusively for European investors. Indeed, the performances were largely dependent on the decline of the euro’s exchange rate versus the US Dollar, as year to date gold and silver rose by just over 2% and oil by about 3%. The CRB Index dropped by 3.3%.
Various factors are behind the reason that the behavior of gold and silver differs from the CRB Index of commodities. Gold and silver in fact benefit from fears that expansionary monetary policies by major international central banks could lead to higher inflation over the coming months. The expected increase in public debt over the next few years is another source of concern. The sum of public and private debt may create financial instability in the majority of developed countries. In this scenario, and in view of low interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic, the opportunity cost to maintain gold or silver in one’s portfolio is very low. Moreover, precious metals could continue to benefit over the coming months from purchases by many central banks, especially the People’s Bank of China, that are looking to diversify reserves to limit their exposure to the US dollar.
However, the CRB Index is reacting to expectations that monetary policy in China could become more restrictive over the next few months, slowing the demand for raw materials. The Chinese economy was in fact one of the main engines of growth during 2009, expanding under the force of a massive Government fiscal stimulus program. Data published Thursday, March 11th, shows that the Chinese economy may overheat. Inflation increased by 2.7% YOY against consensus expectations of 2.5% YOY, and may rise, according to some Chinese economists, within a couple of months to 3%.
But the main source of concern for Chinese authorities is the trend of private sector credit. New loans to the private sector rose by 700 billion Yuan in February, down from 1300 billion in January, but higher than the 600 billion expected by consensus. These numbers make it difficult to achieve the target for new loans of 7500 billion in 2010, representing a decrease of 22% compared to 2009. This may in turn lead to higher interest rates over the coming months for the first time since December 2007.
The behavior of oil prices presents a challenge in itself, especially since supply on the market seems to be much higher than demand. However, the rise in oil prices in the short term may be influenced more by expectations of continuing international economic growth, as evidenced more by the correlation between the US ISM Manufacturing Index and oil prices, than by the actual dynamics between demand and supply.
The early 2010 increase has not changed the outlook for precious metals in the upcoming months for a number of reasons. Firstly, easing monetary policies by major central banks and fears about the state of public finances should remain for several months, or even years with regard to the later. Secondly, gold and silver have maintained an even keel during the crisis over the last 3 years on their capacity to offer sound diversification from the stock market.
The correlation between gold and the S&P 500 has in fact remained below 0.1 (the correlation ranges from 1, maximum correlation, and -1, inverse correlation), while the correlation between silver and the S&P 500 increased to 0.17. Much higher, however, was the correlation between the S&P 500 and the CRB Index (0.5), suggesting that the CRB is no longer able to ensure adequate portfolio diversification. Likewise around 0.5 is the correlation between oil prices and the S&P 500 over the past 3 years.
For these reasons, it would still makes sense to invest in at least one of the products related to trends in precious metals, whereas to invest in the general index of raw materials or oil would be riskier and inefficient.
Notwithstanding the above, caution should be exercised when investing in gold and silver given the strong optimism that currently surrounds them, negative from the contrarian perspective. Mark Hulbert, for instance, showed that the Hulbert Gold Sentiment Index ((HGSI)), which reflects the average recommendation of a specialized series of newsletters on gold, has risen to 46.6% last week compared to 32.3% in early February. All of this in spite of virtually unchanged yellow metal prices.
Even very optimistic price targets from several major investment banks fade quietly in the short term. For instance, Goldman Sachs recently issued a report predicting a rise in gold prices up to US$1,400 an ounce. Much more optimistic was Charles Morris of HSBC, saying that gold will rise until US$5,000 an ounce in five years. In the face of such forecasts, one might recall Goldman Sachs’ prediction in May ‘08 that oil would reach US$200 a barrel. The month after, oil reached a historical record of US$145 a barrel before plunging down to 30.
Disclosure: No positions


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Debt Reduction Propels Temple-Inland

Posted by admin On March - 18 - 2010

Ockham Research submits:

Temple-Inland, Inc. (TIN), which makes paper, packaging and building products, was put on credit rating watch with a positive outlook by Standard & Poor’s. The stock is up nearly 10% on the news Wednesday and it is also giving a boost to some of Temple-Inland’s competitors’ stocks. S&P credits the company will reducing its debt load by $440 million over the last year, and said that if it can continue with its debt reduction plans it would be eligible for a credit upgrade to “BBB”. While their efforts to reduce debt should be commended, it is a bit surprising that this announcement would be met with such enthusiasm by the market.

Temple-Inland was able to shave its debt in an environment that was certainly not hospitable to an important business segment, building products such as lumber and particle board. Clearly, this segment is heavily correlated to the strength of US housing starts, which have been at extremely low levels over the past two years. The company was able to utilize $175 million in alternative-fuels tax credits as well as $335 million in freeTIN cash flow in fiscal 2009, and rolled the majority of that into cutting down its debt. What makes this especially impressive is that the company devoted these resources even though they did not have any significant amount of debt maturing until 2012. It is clear that there were not a lot of great opportunities for TIN to invest in growth over the last year, so they were content to bide their time and strengthen their balance sheet. This may not be the sexiest strategy for investors, but it should give them greater flexibility to pursue growth as better opportunities present themselves in the years ahead.


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Actuant Corporation F2Q10 Earnings Call Transcript

Posted by admin On March - 18 - 2010

Actuant Corporation (ATU)

F2Q10 Earnings Call

March 17, 2010 11:00 AM EST


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GE’s Increased Dividend – Not Until 2011

Posted by admin On March - 18 - 2010

eChristian Investing submits:

Speaking at a Goldman Sachs investor conference yesterday, General Electric (GE) CFO Keith Sherin indicated that profits at the conglomerate will begin growing again in 2011. GE’s profits have been in decline since 2007 and Wall Street expects another decline this year.

Dividend investors also have reason to cheer as GE’s CFO also indicated that the company plans to begin growing their dividend again, but not until 2011.


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Is There One Best Place to Find Investment Ideas?

Posted by admin On March - 17 - 2010

Mariusz Skonieczny submits:

Just as business owners must constantly search for new leads that turn into clients, investors also must be on the lookout for leads that can turn into profitable investment opportunities. On numerous occasions, I have been asked about my sources for investment ideas.

There really isn’t one source that I use because leads can come from many different avenues. For example, one of my best ideas in the second half of 2009 actually came from the editor of my book, Why Are We So Clueless about the Stock Market? After the editing work, he asked me if I could look through about 20 companies and advise him on whether any of them were good. Even though I discarded 19 of his ideas, one company really caught my eye. It was Arctic Cat (ACAT), which manufactures snowmobiles and all-terrain vehicles (ATVs).


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ShengdaTech, Inc. (SDTH)

F4Q10 (Qtr End 12/31/09) Earnings Call

March 16, 2010 9:00 am ET


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Wearin’ of the Green by Commodity (Stock) Investors

Posted by admin On March - 17 - 2010

Hard Assets Investor submits:

By Brad Zigler

Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.3%

As a child, I remember being very careful to wear green on St. Patrick’s Day to avoid pinches from schoolmates. Investors in greenery this year have managed to avoid some financial pain themselves.


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tom konrad Tom Konrad (AltEnergyStocks) submits:

World oil supplies are stagnant, and in the not-so-distant future will begin to decline. If economic growth continues, demand for oil will increase as well. This will lead to a long term rise in oil prices, which will only stop if 1) high oil prices or other factors stop or reverse economic growth, or 2) we find some way to use much less oil for the same amount of economic activity. Each of these scenarios will have winners and losers. In other words, investment opportunities.

Substitution


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Four Trends Powering Base Metals ETFs

Posted by admin On March - 16 - 2010

tom lydonTom Lydon (ETF Trends) submits:

Move over, gold. You’ve had your day in the sun. Right now, industrial demand from both developing and developed markets is powering a rally in base metal ETFs.

Last year was the Year of All Things Gold as the safe haven metal supplied investors with a shelter for the market turmoil. But rampant fear in the marketplace has abated, and a bigger risk appetite is the order of the day. That means markets are moving, countries are growing and they’re hunting down the materials they need to get it going:


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