Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Stocks and Sectors

Archive for the ‘Long Ideas’ Category

Nokia And Microsoft: Together Ready To Take On Apple

Posted by admin On February - 22 - 2012

By Cameron Kaine:

It is virtually impossible to be both the market leader in an ever growing industry and yet be grossly irrelevant at the same time. But then there is phone giant Nokia (NOK) which has proven that there is no such thing as impossible. It still comes as a surprise to many to learn that Nokia is still the world’s largest mobile phone maker. However, what is not a surprise is that Apple (AAPL) as well as other growing competitors have all but sealed its fate in the race for smart phone dominance as the company continues to show that it is unable to keep up.

Nokia has now lost 75% of its market value in the last four years. Though it may still be one of the giants in the mobile phone industry, it has seen its market share plummet to drastic lows over the last 12 months. This really

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Wal-Mart’s Bringing In $15,000 Every Second

Posted by admin On February - 22 - 2012

By Philip Mause:

That’s about how fast the cash came in last quarter for Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) – $15,000 a second. WMT posted solid earnings and demonstrated year over year growth of roughly 6%, but the stock tanked and WMT closed Tuesday at $60.07.

This past year, WMT’s share repurchase program slowed down, as more cash was used for expansion and acquisition. Nevertheless, fully diluted share count dropped by 121 million shares – a pace at which WMT would buy back all of its own shares in less time than it takes a 30 year Treasury bond to mature. In the past year, dividends increased by roughly 20%, and the stock now yields 2.3%.

WMT now has annual sales of well over $400 billion per year and has a market cap of less than half its sales. This means that a relatively small increase in prices or decrease in expenses can produce a

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Dell Is Just Getting Warmed Up

Posted by admin On February - 22 - 2012

By Jack Holland:

Dell (DELL) delivered earnings of $0.51 per share. On a one-penny miss, finicky analysts that apparently have not lived through a serious recession are now running for cover, calling for an end to the PC, the demise of Dell to its competitor Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) or continuing the misguided comparison of Dell to Apple (AAPL). Dell and Apple are about as similar as a basket of miniature iPhones and a basket of Dell Solutions and Services consultants.

Dell highlights its 4th quarter and FY11 results as follows:

  • Record earnings per share in fiscal fourth quarter
  • Enterprise solutions and services revenue up 27 percent for full year
  • Revenue increase of $8.6 billion in FY11 – largest single-year increase in company history

Dell’s expanding strength as an enterprise solutions provider and continued strong execution during the fiscal fourth quarter drove record results and one of the company’s most successful financial quarters ever.

Once

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Abercrombie & Fitch Looks Like A Bargain

Posted by admin On February - 22 - 2012

By Valuentum:

As part of our process, we perform a rigorous discounted cash-flow methodology that dives into the true intrinsic worth of companies. In Abercrombie & Fitch’s (ANF) case, we think the firm is undervalued. We think it is fairly valued at $69 per share, significantly higher than where it is currently trading. Our report on Abercrombie & Fitch and hundreds of other companies can be found here.

For some background, we think a comprehensive analysis of a firm’s discounted cash-flow valuation, relative valuation versus industry peers, as well as an assessment of technical and momentum indicators is the best way to identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to buy. This process culminates in what we call our Valuentum Buying Index (click here for an in-depth, narrated presentation of our methodology), which ranks stocks on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best.

If a company

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Newmont Mining: Time Your Entry For A Long-Term Investment

Posted by admin On February - 22 - 2012

By John Mylant:

Newmont (NEM) is a strong company that leads its industry in value. As a gold company we look to it for a long term investment and look to see what will influence it in 2012. Timing will be the main issue in 2012 while we look for an entry point.

Newmont Mining Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and production of gold and copper properties. The company’s assets or operations are located in the United States, Australia, Peru, Indonesia, Ghana, Canada, New Zealand, and Mexico. As of December 31, 2009, it had proven and probable gold reserves of approximately 93.5 million equity ounces and an aggregateland position of approximately 27,500 square miles. The company was founded in 1916 and is headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado.

NEM is the second largest gold producer (by oz) in the world. Gold, being considered an effective hedge against inflation, means

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The Smart Money To Buy Out Sirius Is On …

Posted by admin On February - 22 - 2012

By Mike Stallings:

And the winner is …

Oh come on, did you think I would list my winner for the Sirius (SIRI) “buyout contest” in the first line of my article? I am actually more curious to hear about what you think of my handicapping and more importantly your ideas, just make sure you also list your reasoning in your comments.

In all seriousness though, I am going to list a few potential companies who could benefit from buying out the satellite radio giant. They are in no particular order. Remember, these are only a list of only a few suitors whom I think have the potential to make a transaction happen sometime in 2012.

Some of these are long shots at best, I have given them all my odds on the chances of it actually happening below. Please remember the odds are listed for entertainment purposes only:

Liberty Media (LMCA); 3-1

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Avon To Rise 27%, Outperforming Estee Lauder

Posted by admin On February - 22 - 2012

By Takeover Analyst:

Avon Products (AVP) continued to struggle operationally in the fourth quarter and the near-term outlook is weak. As I have stated earlier, the direct selling firm makes for a perfect activist target given its discount to intrinsic value, poor execution, and doubted management. Compared to Estée Lauder (EL), Avon is more undervalued but fails to close the gap primarily due to managerial missteps and weakening fundamentals.

From a multiples perspective, Avon is significantly cheaper than Estée Lader. It trades at a respective 16.1x and 11.1x past and forward earnings with an impressive (although doubted) dividend yield of 4.8%. Estée, on the other hand, trades at a respective 26.6x and 20.9x past and forward earnings. To put this under greater context, consider that Estée is valued at slightly more than its historical 5-year average PE multiple versus just 80% for Avon.

At the fourth quarter earnings call, Avon’s Chairman, Andrea Jung,

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J.C. Penney An Investment In Ron Johnson

Posted by admin On February - 22 - 2012

By John Mylant:

J.C. Penney (JCP) has gone up in value almost 45% since September 2011. The increase is not because of fundamentals in the company as much as it has been because of one name, Ron Johnson. Long term investing in JCP right now may be more to do about who leads the company and not the fundamental facts.

J. C. Penney Company, Inc., (JCP) through its subsidiary, J. C. Penney Corporation, Inc., operates department stores in the United States and Puerto Rico. The company sells family apparel and footwear, accessories, fine and fashion jewelry, beauty products and home furnishings. It also provides various services, such as styling salon, optical, portrait photography and custom decorating. The company also sells its products through its Internet Web site, jcp.com. J. C. Penney Company, Inc. has strategic alliance with Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia, Inc. As of December 7, 2011, it operated approximately 1,100 department stores.

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Honeywell, United Technologies Both ‘Buys’

Posted by admin On February - 22 - 2012

By Takeover Analyst:

Honeywell (HON) and United Technologies (UTX) have been on a roll, yielding solid double-digit returns for the year to date. Both companies have impressive fundamentals and have taken appropriate measures to address inevitable defense cuts. Based on my review of their strengths an DCF model, I find safe 20% upside for both companies.

From a multiples perspective, United Technologies is the cheaper of the two. It trades at a respective 15.3x and 12.4x past and forward earnings with a dividend yield of 2.3%. Honeywell, on the other hand, trades at a respective 25.7x and 12.1x past and forward earnings with a dividend yield of 2.5%. According to T1 Banker, United Technologies is also preferred at a “strong buy” versus just a “buy” for its competitor.

At the fourth quarter earnings call, Honeywell’s management noted an excellent close to the year:

[W]e had another great quarter marked by terrific execution with

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By Brooks McFeely:

Synopsys (SNPS) is due with its Q1 results in the extended-hours this evening. The Thomson Reuters mean analyst estimate is for earnings of $0.52 per share on $417 million in revenue.

SNPS, over the long term, has widened its share movement 15 times and narrowed 15 times.

Looking deeper into the performance data, SNPS has recorded an earning-driven after-hours gain in 14 of the quarters tracked in our database, adding to its gains in next-day action in seven of those events, or 50% of the time. On the downside, SNPS has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 16 quarters, reversing direction or narrowing its negative trade the following day in eight events, or 50% of the time. In other words, longs catch a slim advantage in trading the issue post-earnings tonight.

  • On Nov. 30, 2011, SNPS advanced 2.4% in night trading after meeting Q4 estimates and setting its Q1 guidance

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