MinorityStakes submits:
Barel Karsan indicated opportunity in Nu Horizons Electronics Corp (NUHC) on (03/17/10). We will examine his holding to get “valuation exercise.”
Archive for the ‘Semis’ Category
How Serious Is Intel’s Pursuit of the Energy Market?
On March - 19 - 2010
Greentech Media submits:
by Michael Kanellos
Intel (INTC) will unfurl some more information on March 23 on all of its efforts in the energy world.
Intel: Look Ahead to March 2010 Quarterly Results
On March - 19 - 2010
Neil Carvin submits:
This post describes our model of Intel Corporation’s (INTC) Income Statement for the quarter that will end on 27 March 2010. GCFR estimates are derived from guidance provided by company management, when available, and the company’s historical financial results.
The intent of our look-ahead exercises is to produce a baseline for identifying surprises, positive or negative, in the reported data.
Tech Hiring Bounces Back: Software / Services Companies Have Positive Net Adds in 2009
On March - 19 - 2010
Naveen Selvaraj submits:
I guess anybody following the US stock markets on a weekly basis would know how keenly the jobless claims and other employment-related metrics are tracked.
With this mind, I collated the headcount data for around 168 Tech stocks from data available on the Gridstone Platform (of the 400 Tech stocks, 168 had headcount data for 2008 and 2009) and the numbers are pretty interesting. Remember that the data is based on the headcount figures provided in company filings (10-K typically) and so are accurate.
The Smartest Parts of the IT Market
On March - 19 - 2010
Some people always face the wrong way. Take the case of the average IT analyst. Many come from an industry background, and as a result they cannot but help see the world through the lens of desktop PCs, servers, outsourcing and enterprise software systems. This is unfortunate, because over the last decade corporate IT growth has been meager and the prospects do not look that much brighter.
In 2000, $371 billion was spent on PC hardware. By last year, this had shrunk to $326 billion, according to estimates from Gartner, a US based market researcher. This number includes the value of PCs, servers, printers and storage. For further confirmation, I suggests you examine the 10-year price charts for Microsoft (MSFT), Dell (DELL), or Intel (INTC). They are not quite flatlining, but the pulse is weak.
The National Broadband Plan
On March - 17 - 2010
Fred Wilson submits:
I went down to Washington, DC yesterday to participate in an event that celebrated the 25th anniversary of .com. I spoke on a panel (yes a hated panel) moderated by Kara Swisher and including Aneesh Chopra, CTO of the Federal Government, Arianna Huffington, and Ken Silva, CTO of Verisign (VRSN).
Kara started out the discussion by holding up a binder that included the FCC’s National Broadband Plan that was submitted to Congress this week. She had a lot of fun with the fact that our nation’s broadband plan was being distributed to Congress and the media in paper form in a binder.
Nova, Camtek: Focus on 2 Competitive Chip Equipment Manufacturers
On March - 17 - 2010
Shlomi Cohen submits:
Small investment bank Roth Capital has invited no less than 12 Israeli firms to its Growth Stock Conference this week on the west coast of the US, as most of the companies have plans to hold secondary offerings or to be bought this year, if the market’s current positive conditions continue.
One of the Israeli firms at the conference is Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. (Nasdaq:NVMI; TASE:NVMI), which I hold in my portfolio tracked by "Globes". Nova already completed a follow-on offering, after its share price jumped 15-fold since February of 2009. About a month ago, another small investment bank, Needham, successfully raised a net $17 million for the firm, and Roth Capital was a co-manager of the offering. The amount was double the company’s entire market value at the bottom of the market crisis last year.
What Does Intel’s Chart Show at New Highs?
On March - 17 - 2010
optionMONSTER submits:
By Bryan McCormick
I often write about such trading factors as technical patterns, sectors, weightings, and flow of funds. But today I wanted to look at something very simple–so basic, in fact, that it is often overlooked.
Fab Prospects for Varian Semiconductor Equipment
On March - 16 - 2010
Paul Price submits:
Varian Semi (VSEA) is a supplier of ion implantation systems to semiconductor manufacturers. They hold the leading market share of the specialized equipment used to form transistors during the semiconductor fabrication process. Major customers include Intel (INTC) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM).
Fiscal 2009 (ended Sep. 30, 2009) marked the low point for this cyclical company, although the fourth quarter showed marked improvement with a three-month profit of $0.11 versus a prior year gain of just $0.03 /share.
The December quarter was even better with EPS of $0.22 against a fiscal Q1 2009 loss of $0.10 /share.
While earnings predictability is not high for VSEA, current FY estimates run from $1.38 (Zacks) to (S&P’s) $1.53 /share. FY 2011 expectations run from $2.04 to $2.26. Varian shares sold off by $1.58 today (-5.3%) to close at $28.22. That puts its multiple at under 19x calendar year projections and about 14x next year’s figures.
Here are VSEA’s per share numbers from continuing operations as reported by Value Line:
|
FY
|
Sales
|
C/F
|
EPS
|
Avg. P/E
|
52-wk. Range
|
|
2001
|
8.61
|
1.07
|
0.84
|
16.6x
|
9.30 – 22.20
|
|
2002
|
4.04
|
0.03
|
d.0.17
|
NMF
|
6.10 – 22.60
|
|
2003
|
4.61
|
0.33
|
0.15
|
NMF
|
8.70 – 23.10
|
|
2004
|
6.47
|
0.90
|
0.73
|
23.3x
|
11.40 – 22.70
|
|
2005
|
6.80
|
0.79
|
0.65
|
26.1x
|
13.40 – 20.70
|
|
2006
|
8.77
|
1.17
|
0.98
|
21.1x
|
17.30 – 31.00
|
|
2007
|
13.93
|
2.07
|
1.73
|
21.2x
|
26.40 – 58.20
|
|
2008
|
11.61
|
1.61
|
1.32
|
26.6x
|
14.00 – 41.20
|
|
2009
|
4.95
|
d.0.20
|
d.0.40
|
NMF
|
16.00 – 36.60
|
With an outlook for solid profits as the capital spending cycle ramps up, I see today’s big decline as a good time to start taking a position. VSEA shares were as high as $37.46 as recently as January of this year and changed hands above $40 in both 2006 and 2007. Standard and Poors rates them as 4-Stars (out of 5) and has a 12-month target of $34.
The company is almost debt free and has almost $300 million in cash and securities on their books.
It’s difficult to have a firm upside target but even 19x the low-end estimate for the calendar year would put these shares back above $30 by next January. That’s probably too conservative but it allows me to use put writing as my investment technique, using VSEA as my underlying equity.
Here are some attractively priced puts based on today’s closing prices:
|
Sell
|
Put Premium
|
Break-Even Price
|
Margin of Safety*
|
|
August $25 Puts
|
$1.50 /sh.
|
$23.50
|
16.7%
|
|
Jan. 2011 $22.50 Puts
|
$1.65 /sh.
|
$20.85
|
26.1%
|
|
Jan. 2011 $25 Puts
|
$2.55 /sh.
|
$22.45
|
20.4%
|
|
Jan. 2012 $25 Puts
|
$4.30 /sh.
|
$20.70
|
26.6%
|
|
* Margin of Safety = % break-even price is below today’s close.
|
|||
In each case listed above you can make money if the shares:
- Go up
- Remain unchanged
- Decline by less than 16.7%
On the longer-term puts you are protected against loss as long as VSEA doesn’t drop by more than 20%.
In all cases your maximum upside is the put premium received and your worst case scenario would be having to purchase shares of VSEA at prices 16.7% – 26.6% lower than today’s closing price. At those prices I’d be an outright buyer right now.
Disclosure: Author is short VSEA puts
Will Intel’s Latest Xeon Lineup Be an ‘Economic No Brainer’?
On March - 16 - 2010
Larry Dignan (ZDNet) submits:
Intel (INTC) launched its latest server chips designed for next generation data centers Tuesday and is pitching a five month return on investment for customers using single core servers—a third of the customer base—and a 15 month payback for more modern machines.
The chip giant’s challenge: Position its latest server chips—the Xeon 5600 family—as an “economic no brainer” for customers that have been putting off server upgrades. The single core crowd can get a 15:1 server consolidation ration with the latest Xeons. Intel’s positioning is worth noting as research firms and vendors have been preaching that a server upgrade cycle is about to break out. But first, the details. Boyd Davis, general manager Intel’s data center group marketing, broke out a blitz of performance enhancements and noted that upgrading was an “economic no brainer.” To wit: