Sunday, May 20, 2012

Stocks and Sectors

Archive for the ‘Short Ideas’ Category

CVD Equipment: Facing A Demand Slowdown

Posted by admin On May - 17 - 2012

By Michael Maher:

CVD Equipment Corp. (CVV) reported earnings Tuesday that left some on the Street wanting more. The company recorded revenue of $7.2 million for Q1, up 15% from Q4. Although this marks the company’s seventh quarter in consecutive year-over-year growth, the Street wants more and faster. It’s not going to happen, at least not yet.

CVD Equipment aids in the research and development of solar, nano, and advanced electronic components. Therefore the company’s revenue stream is directly correlated with the demand for energy savings, energy generation materials and products needed to address rising energy costs. Just last week, the company announced a multimillion-dollar order from a major aerospace component manufacturer needing a custom Chemical Vapor Deposition System scale-up solution for its next generation of composite products. However, these multimillion-dollar deals may be drying up.

A look at the company’s backlogs shows a decrease of 41% from the same period last year.

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Citigroup: A Value Trap And A Sell

Posted by admin On May - 17 - 2012

By Insider Monkey:

By Jake Mann

A value trap is kind of like the low-priced food that a supermarket sets near its entrance – it looks attractive at first, until one considers the reasons as to why the food may be so cheap. In the investing world, some of the most successful money managers have made their livings plucking undervalued stocks out of the bargain bin, but it can be dangerous to buy only based on the metrics. In some cases, a stock’s earnings or cash flow multiple may be low because there are fundamental changes affecting that particular company, or uncertainties about what the future macroeconomic environment may hold. In the financial sector, most of the biggest banking stocks are trading at prices significantly below their pre-recession highs, but a sluggish American recovery, Eurozone worries, and the unfolding JP Morgan Chase (JPM) crisis may form an impenetrable investment ceiling, so to speak.

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By Cameron Kaine:

What has been a foregone conclusion to everyone in the market that appreciates value is that fundamentals of Sirius XM (SIRI) just didn’t support its valuation – and as often happens in severe bear markets, Wall Street has begun to apply a considerable amount of punishment to stocks such as Sirius that sport inflated P/Es. But I’m not one to ever say “I told you so” but in this case I can’t resist. As I have been saying for the past three months, no other stock on the market has appeared as a better short candidate than Sirius and today the shorts are laughing all the way to the bank as they cover lower and lower each week. The question is, how low will it go?

One question that was answered today is that the stock is

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Petrobras Investors: Brace Yourselves For More Pain

Posted by admin On May - 17 - 2012

By Emerging Money:

By Joseph Hogue

Shares in Brazilian state-owned energy behemoth Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) fell another 3.3% on Tuesday, adding to the already 40.5% loss in the ADR shares over the last year.

The company has had year-on-year sequentially lower earnings for the last two quarters with trailing earnings falling by 26.0% from the previous four quarters. Petrobras stock is now cheaper than any time since 2005.

Weak fundamentals and petroleum prices are not the only headwinds facing the company though. The shares listed on the NYSE are down over 35% since February 1st while the company’s domestically listed common shares have fallen by only 25.3% over the same period. The difference in returns is a rapidly depreciating currency due to aggressive government intervention.

This week the Brazilian real traded its lowest since 2009 after having slid 6.5% over the course of this year, the largest decrease of 16 currencies tracked by

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Colgate-Palmolive Is A Short

Posted by admin On May - 17 - 2012

By Gene Andrews:

It is critically important to know the structure of a device to fully appreciate its function. For instance: If I were to assert to you that in order to be successful an architect has to conform to certain realities of his profession. No reasonable person would argue that point. He needs to know the materials he is working with and the nature of those materials, how they interact with one another, the principles of engineering etc. The market is no different. Whatever tools you use or develop to understand the market and indeed the very questions you ask about the market, depend on an accurate understanding of existing market realities.

In a nutshell, the reality is that there is an individual who is called a Designated Market Maker (DMM) who while at the same time he is allowed to invest for himself, is also given the incredibly sensitive task of

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What Jamie Dimon Is Doing Wrong

Posted by admin On May - 17 - 2012

By Christopher Grosvenor:

JPMorgan (JPM) could claw back pay of executives that are involved in the $2B trading loss. If JP Morgan were to do so, it could cause more damage to the brand. People would become hesitant about working for JPMorgan, the size of the claw-backs would be small compared to the size of the loss, and a claw-back isn’t confidence inspiring to investors.

The question you have to ask yourself is, after years of outstanding service and making a firm billions of dollars, how would you feel about having your pay reduced after a mistake? The answer is not good.

Ina Drew worked at JPMorgan

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Deutsche Bank Is A Sell On PIIGS Exposure

Posted by admin On May - 17 - 2012

By David White:

Virtually all of the big European banks have large exposure to the PIIGS sovereign and/or commercial debt. All of these banks are in strong down trends since last summer. Deutsche Bank (DB) may be in Germany, but that does not make it immune. It has invested in the PIIGS along with everyone else. According to data from the EBA stress tests it has $140.61B in PIIGS exposure. It has a market cap of only $33.57B. It’s exposure as a percentage of market cap is 419% (the exposure at the time of the stress tests, but today’s market cap). DB has a reasonably high stock price at $36.39. It trades at low multiples, but these are at risk. Plus DB earnings estimates have been being steadily revised downward over the last three months.

The two year stock chart gives a perhaps clearer technical picture of the strength of the downtrend. 


(Click

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New Reasons Yahoo Could Tumble 30% By 2013

Posted by admin On May - 17 - 2012

By Vatalyst:

Yahoo! (YHOO) is one of the first widely used internet search engine companies. Yahoo! is currently in the middle of a company-wide reorganization, primarily because its revenue has declined in each of the last four years, from $7.2 billion in 2008, to $4.9 billion in 2011. The main reason that Yahoo!’s revenue has decreased is because it has been hurt by strong competition from Google (GOOG) and the soon to go public Facebook (FB). In an effort to turn the company around Yahoo! hired Scott Thompson as its new CEO in early January. Prior to signing on with Yahoo!, Mr. Thompson served as the president of PayPal’s online payment service.

Mr. Thompson’s job was to turn Yahoo! around, and in early April he began the reorganization by announcing that the company would be to laying off 2,000 of its 14,000 employees, which would amount to 14% of its workforce. Mr.

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Amazon: Clownish Trade Of The Day

Posted by admin On May - 17 - 2012

By Marek Fuchs:

Clownishness, much like beauty, stands in the eye of the beholder. So let’s gather together to behold a clownish trade. Granted: playing Monday Morning quarterback to lame stock trades is a bit selective, even venal. But in the end, you learn from analyzing mistakes. Plus, what’s more fun than making fun of missteps and pratfalls? With all that said, welcome to the next installment of the Clownish Trade of the Day…

As a dark cloud hovering over a stock, David Einhorn is pure genius. His Lehman Brothers short? Enough said.

Einhorn even wrote long book on a single short. “Fooling Some of the People All of the Time,” about Allied Capital (AFC). Also: enough said. Einhorn seems to have a magnetic pull toward impending doom. (Insert your own joke about his investment in the Mets here.)

That’s why when the incisive Einhorn speaks publicly about stocks he doesn’t like, well,

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By Analytic Firepower:

A few items came out this week which bolster the bear case on American Tower (AMT).

First MSCI announced that AMT would not be included in the US REIT index after their comprehensive semi-annual index review. Wall St. analysts had been giddy with the prospect of an avalanche of demand for the shares from Index investors which will now not take place.

More importantly I have found what I consider to be some misleading disclosures regarding both tower ground lease renewal rates.

Below is a slide taken from the recent management roadshow the CFO took with analysts and salespeople from Bank of America (BAC). It reads very well and seems impressive on the surface. However looking into the information makes me question their calculations.

(click to enlarge)

AMT asserts in the slide that they have been successful in renewing 99% of their ground leases.

“Successful land lease renewal history, with

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