Saturday, March 20, 2010

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Archive for the ‘Transport’ Category

A New 5-Year High for Ford

Posted by admin On March - 19 - 2010

Zacks.com submits:

Shares of Ford Motor Co. (F) surged to $14.15 in afternoon trading Wednesday for the first time in five years. The stock price rose 4.9% since January 2005 before it closed at $14.10 Wednesday.

The 5-year high was primarily driven by Moody’s Investors Service’s upward revision of Ford’s corporate family rating and probability of default rating to “B2” from “B3.” The agency also lifted the company’s secured credit facility to “Ba2” from “Ba3,” and its senior unsecured debt to “B3” from “Caa1.”


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John Petersen submits:

Today we have a bit of a hodge-podge as I consider sticker shocks, delays and manufacturing capacity forecasts in the vehicle electrification and energy storage sector. Since the sticker shock and delay discussions involve recent news, I’ll touch on them first before getting into the fuzzier aspects of manufacturing capacity forecasts.

I’d like to begin with a note of thanks to one of my Seeking Alpha followers, MRTTF, for sending me links to both news stories. For readers who don’t delve into the comment streams, MRTTF is a PhD chemist who works in R&D for a leading domestic lithium-ion battery manufacturer. I truly appreciate his willingness to correct me when I make mistakes, provide technical detail that’s beyond my competence and remind overly optimistic readers "lithium-ion is best for applications where size and weight are of paramount importance and cost is no object."


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Rail Freight Continues to Post Big Gains

Posted by admin On March - 19 - 2010

The Pragmatic Capitalist submits:

Freight traffic posted big year over year gains for the week ending March 13th. According to the AAR, railroads posted their third consecutive week of gains:

U.S. railroads originated 287,837 carloads during the week, up 3.2 percent from the comparable week in 2009, but down 12 percent from 2008. In order to offer a complete picture of the progress in rail traffic, AAR now reports 2010 weekly rail traffic with comparison weeks in both 2009 and 2008.


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Is Harley-Davidson Cruising Towards a Buyout?

Posted by admin On March - 19 - 2010

Rolfe Winkler, CFA submits:

Could Henry Kravis handle a hog? Harley-Davidson’s (HOG) shares revved up this week on talk of a leveraged buyout, and Mr. Kravis’ firm, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, was one name mentioned. The iconic motorcycle maker can absorb plenty more debt, though the price tag and the cyclical nature of the business mean a deal would be no easy ride.

Harley has roared back to life, overtaking frets about its aging customer profile and younger bikers opting for rival brands like Ducati (DMHYY.PK). At around $28 apiece, Harley’s shares are more than triple their recession low, including Tuesday’s 6 percent bounce. Figure any deal would require a premium of at least 30 percent, and the implied equity valuation would be about $8.5 billion.


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Autos to Be Fastest Growing U.S. Industry in Next 5 Years

Posted by admin On March - 19 - 2010

Research Recap submits:

Despite all the problems facing automakers, Oxford Economics forecasts that motor vehicles will be the fastest growing industry in the US over the next five years, displacing medical devices which will drop out of the top 10 growth industries list. We are pleased to offer a complimentary download of Oxford Economics Sector Prospects Briefing for the US.

Oxford Economics forecasts annual growth of 16.4% for motor vehicles for the next five years. The sector had the worst performance in 2009 with a 41.6% decline. Other sectors with double digit growth forecast for the next five years are Iron and Steel (15.0%), Electric Components, Computers and Office Equipment, Motor Vehicle Bodies and Parts and Casting.


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A Look Ahead to the Future of the Trucking Market

Posted by admin On March - 19 - 2010

Morningstar submits:

By Anthony Dayrit.

The trucking industry hit a number of major potholes in 2009. The struggles of the United States economy caused freight volumes to plummet at the end of 2008, resulting in significant overcapacity and intense pressure on trucking rates. In our last trucking Stock Strategist, we discussed the major obstacles that carriers were facing: Weak demand and excess capacity, which lead to intense competition. These factors remain in today’s environment, but volumes appear to be recovering, which may help tighten the market and eventually boost pricing. It’s difficult to pinpoint when the market will reach equilibrium, but we will describe a few short-term trends to give our take on where the industry is headed. We will also share insights from company visits, highlighting a few approaches carriers are taking to prepare for the future.

Volumes Improving, but Weak Pricing Makes for a Bumpy Short-Term Lane
Truckers started 2009 on a steep downhill slope, because the American Trucking Association’s seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index plunged 7.8% sequentially (12.5% year-over-year) during December 2008–the largest month-over-month decline since April 1994. Year-over-year declines remained in the 10%-13% range through the first half of 2009, but lessened during the back half of the year. Based on the ATA data and carriers’ results, we estimate that volumes bottomed sometime around the end of the summer of 2009. The index ended the year on a strong note, as December tonnage increased 1.3% sequentially and recorded a 1.2% increase from 2008 levels–the first growth since September of 2008. For the full year of 2009, the tonnage index finished down 8.7% from 2008 levels. (Click charts to enlarge)


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China’s High Speed Rail Plans Dwarf American Initiatives

Posted by admin On March - 19 - 2010

Ravi Nagarajan submits:

It is so fashionable these days to read stories about a rising China and declining America that any contrarian feels almost provoked to offer a rebuttal. However, it is increasingly difficult to do so at a time when the Chinese are taking on initiatives to improve infrastructure that make American efforts seem trivial in comparison. China’s plans for high speed rail offer the type of astounding numbers that only reinforce common beliefs regarding China’s rise.

30,000 km of New Railway Over Five Years


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Can Ford Solve the Internet’s ‘Last Inch’ Problem?

Posted by admin On March - 19 - 2010

larry dignanLarry Dignan (ZDNet) submits:

K. Venkatesh Prasad, head of Ford’s (F) infotronics research and advanced engineering team, sees the auto as one big mashup—where computing and the car cabin will meld together to create intelligence that will make a driver’s life easier. The open ended question for Prasad is how to get there.

Ford has been working diligently to create a platform that will make in-cabin technology as big of a buying point as reliability, design and safety. However, the rules for this technology push are still being written. It’s not easy to solve “the last inch” problem in a car cockpit where things like social networking, calls and other things on the Internet we take for granted come together at 70 miles per hour.


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Bullish Pattern Pushing the Envelope on FedEx Chart

Posted by admin On March - 19 - 2010

optionMONSTER submits:

By Bryan McCormick

Ahead of FedEx’s (FDX) earnings release this morning (see transcript here upon availability), a bullish pattern is active on its daily chart.
FDX Chart


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Market Blog submits:

By David Berman

After steering around bailouts, bankruptcies and sticky accelerators – issues that have affected its rivals – Ford Motor Co. (F) shares moved higher yet again on Wednesday, confounding those observers who once lumped the company with its failed North American peers.


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