Michael Shulman submits:
I am far too nice a guy to say "I told you so." I will use a more professional expression and ask, "why are people surprised" by today’s terrible new homes sales data?
Housing is one of the most transparent of industries – all sorts of data, from construction permits to foreclosures, are publicly available. When bound together with an agnostic view of the world – no bullish tint, no bearish tint – this data tells any rational person the housing market will be a disaster in 2010, shockingly bad in 2011, bad in 2012 and may come to its feet in 2013 or 2014.